The Flip Math, and the Honesty Check
Each winning trade multiplies the balance: newBalance = balance x (1 + risk% x RR).
A phase repeats that for its trade count, and phases run in order, so the final balance assumes every trade wins.
Probability of an unbroken run of N wins at win rate p: P = p^N.
Worked example: $100 through 3 trades at 100% risk (2R), then 5 at 50%, then 10 at 25% reaches about $4,982,259 on paper. The catch is the probability line: 18 wins in a row at a 55% win rate is p^18, which is under 0.01%. The balance is real math; the streak almost never is.
Why Flips Fail: the Variance Bill
A flip only works if the losing streak never arrives, and the streak math says it always does. Risking a large percentage per trade means a single loss gives back a huge slice of the account, and at any realistic win rate you will hit a run of losses long before you string together the wins a flip needs. That is the variance bill, and the aggressive sizing that makes the upside look exciting is exactly what makes the downside terminal.
This is why the honest number here is the probability, not the balance. The final balance is what happens in the one timeline where nothing goes wrong; the probability is how rare that timeline is. Use the streak probability calculator to see how likely the losing run that ends the flip really is at your win rate.
Phases Beat Hail Marys
If you are going to model a flip at all, staged phases are less reckless than one flat high-risk setting. The common structure risks aggressively early to build a cushion, then tapers the risk down as the balance grows, so a late loss costs a smaller share of what you have built. It does not change the fundamental odds, but it does mean the account is not risking everything on every single trade for the whole run.
Tapering also mirrors how disciplined compounding actually works: as capital grows, the sensible move is to risk a smaller percentage, not a larger one. Model the taper here, then compare it against steady compounding to see how much of the flips appeal is just front-loaded variance.
The Prop-Firm Alternative
Most people who want to flip a tiny account are really after one thing: more capital to trade than they own. A funded or prop-firm account is the calmer route to that, because it lets you trade a larger balance under fixed rules without betting your own savings on a flawless streak. You pass a challenge with disciplined sizing instead of gambling a small deposit to zero.
The trade is real capital for real rules: drawdown limits, targets, and a share of the profits. But those rules push you toward exactly the sizing this calculator shows a flip cannot afford, which is why renting capital and sizing sensibly tends to outlast flipping a small account over and over.
